Global warming is resulting in an increase in the frequency, unpredictability, intensity and extent of floods, erratic torrential rains, heat waves and droughts world-wide. According the UNEP, between 1970 and 2004, global greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions were enhanced by 70% and carbon dioxide by 80%.
However, the incidence of global warming will vary from country to country and region to region. Nearly 20 to 30% of species are likely to be at the increased risk of extinction, if increases in global average warming exceed 1.5 to 2.5 degrees C. In Africa, by 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are likely to be exposed to water stress, owing to climate change.
Yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by upto 50% in some countries of Africa and Asia. South Asia, as bracketed with Africa and Southeast Asia, is one of the most vulnerable regions of the world to face the ugliness and cruel clutches of climate change.
The sensitivity of the matter can be measured by the preamble of the Sir Nicholson Report that "from the Himalayas, which feeds water to a billion people, to the coastal areas of Bangladesh, South Asian countries must prepare for the effects of global warming, even as they work to combat the human causes of climate change". According to Climate Change Vulnerability Index of the 28 nations deemed at "extreme risk", 22 are in Africa.
Among South Asian states, Maldives, Bangladesh and India happen to be most apparent victims of climate change in the next fifty years, if the current emission rate of (GHGs) and carbon dioxide remain unabated. In December of 2007, Dr Rajendra K Pachauri, chairman of IPCC, revealed in a press conference in Delhi that "upto 60 million coastal people in the low-lying areas of South Asia could be displaced by global warming by the end of the 21st century.
Coastal Mumbai and Kolkata are already showing signs of strains on their drainage systems and infrastructure". Maldives, a tiny economy and a small peninsula may be swallowed up by the ever-rising level of the Indian Ocean. Some of its areas are already being submerged by the sea intrusion at a visible pace.
In June 2009, similar views were expressed by Professor Mohan Munasinghe, vice chairman of the IPCC that climate change in Sri Lanka will have grim consequences on agriculture, water, health and the coast. By 2025, these concerns will assume serious proportions in Sri Lanka.
According to AFP (2009), among the so-called BRIC economies - Brazil, Russia, India, and China - only India is in the "high risk" group owing to its population density, security risks and resource security. According to Dayal Ashvin of Oxfam (2008), the floods of 2007 affected over 30 million in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
South Asia loses up to 6% of its GDP to disasters annually. Climate change is messing the situation when two-thirds of South Asians disasters are climate-prone. The third report of IPCC was released in 2001. It warned to the world that if there were "zero emissions afresh", what already exists in the atmosphere would cause global warming and impact mostly on tropical countries".
Poor people, either from the developing or developed countries are the most hit by the climatic vagaries and disturbances. It was witnessed in 2004 when the Hurricane Katrina displaced and killed poor coastal communities in USA.
In the Sri Lankan case, it is reported that sea temperature will rise in next two decades by 6-7 inches, leaving dry areas drier and wet areas becoming wetter. Some areas will be inundated with floods and some will suffer from droughts. Another study prepared by the Meteorological Department of Sri Lanka shows that in the same time span, the output of paddy crop will go down by 20-30% in the face of high temperature and less water.
Bangladesh is already under the same climatic stress. Its financial capitals like Dhaka and Chittagong are being rated on high risk. Bangladesh is estimated to lose a tenth of its rice crop and one third of its wheat output over the next 50 years.
India, with the largest people in South Asia, maybe the most seriously affected by the scantier rainfall and by glacier melt in the Himalayas that supply the river system on which its agriculture depends heavily. Glacier melt can reverberate in China as well.
Although Pakistan's contribution in the global GHGs emission is negligible, but being a predominantly agricultural economy it may face worst climatic disorders at the cost of millions of poor people especially living in the weak ecosystems.
Food, water and energy insecurity will be immense. Stagflation may sting its social fabric. UNDP (2008) Human Development Report suggests that in Pakistan climate models kindle agricultural yield losses of 6-9%, with just a 1 centigrade increase in temperature. Extreme weather patterns can be seen by the fact that after 78 years, on June 09, 2007 was recorded as the hottest day in Pakistan.
UN's specialised agency on food security (IFAD) brought to picture that regional studies state that a loss of $1.7 billion in total costs, in the water resources sector is associated to a projected 2% temperature increase, and an increase by 7-924 million of the number of poor rural people experiencing water stress associated in a 2-4% of temperature.
Representing the president of Pakistan in the UN Headquarter New York in 2007, the then Environment Minister of Pakistan Faisal Saleh Hayat said "Agricultural productivity in Pakistan was affected by the changes in land and water regimes. Dry land areas in arid and semi-arid regions were most vulnerable and effected agriculture productivity, putting the country's food security at risk".
He affirmed government's action plan regarding developing water management systems, changing cropping patterns and creating mass awareness. According to Tauqeer Ali Sheikh of LEAD (CEO) Pakistan, the government of Pakistan will have to determine its priority areas for investment and action in order to cope with the menace of climate change in the shortest possible time.
Water security, food security, forest conservation and cultivation, energy security should be included in the next five year development plan by making institutional rules and regulations aligned to the national spirit to face climate change. The lack of coherence and co-ordination among various organisations of government should be overcome.
DFID (2009) noted that the glaciers of the greater Himalaya region (China and South Asia) are melting faster than those of the north and south poles. By 2050, floods and droughts will affect more than 60 million people each year in Bangladesh, whereas 30 m are already affected in India.
Germanwatch and Climate Action Network Europe maintain Climate Change Performance Index annually by assigning 50% weighting to emissions trend, 30% emissions level and 20% to climate policy of the top 10 polluters. China, United States, Russia and India contribute more than 50% of the emissions of CO2 in the global atmospheric system. The World Bank (2009), by realising the gravity of the matter, has adopted a seven points agenda which goes as follow:
1. Mainstream adaptation and mitigation into its core development work
2. Provide innovative and concessional financing
3. Pioneer and advance new market mechanisms
4. Link private sector financing to environmental initiatives
5. Support technology development and adoption in developing countries
6. Support applied research on climate change economics in developing countries
7. Contribute to an international regime based on areas above-mentioned.
Adaptation and mitigation approach have been given high priority in the agenda. In July 2008, the Board of Directors approved the creation of two climate investment funds aimed to provide interim and scaled-up financing to developing countries to shoulder their efforts to overcome climatic disturbances. The tools like Climate Investment Funds (CIFs) and Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) can be benefited by developing countries.
With the publication of the first Assessment Report of IPCC in 1990, the issue of global warming was galvanised world-wide by the United Nations Environment Programme. In the follow up, World Earth Summit was held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Immediately UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) was agreed upon. In a series of follow up sessions, finally the Kyoto Protocol was produced in 1997 for signing and ratification.
The Kyoto Protocol makes mandatory a clear-cut in emissions in GHGs by the industrialised countries. It enshrines technology transfer and financing from developed countries to the developing world. It has been ratified by all major world powers and blocks except USA and Australia. Pakistan being the head of G-77 in 2007 played a pivotal role, gathering world community in Bali for a road map to be agreed upon in Copenhagen in 2009.
Bali Declaration was signed in 2007 by more than 200 scientists hailing from all over the world, including USA, based on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Article 2 that committed signatories to the "stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system".
UN Summit on climate change was convened by the UNSG Moon on September 22 2009 in New York to mobilise political will and strengthen momentum for a fair, effective, and ambitious climate deal in Copenhagen this December 2009.
He welcomed guests and unfolded the purpose of calling this gathering of scientists, government representatives and NGOs with these words "The objective of the Summit on Climate Change, which I am convening on 22 September, is to mobilise the political will and vision needed to reach an ambitious agreed outcome based on science at the UN climate talks in Copenhagen".
He warned that he was predicting the failure of one of the mega-events on climate change, going to be scheduled after three months in Denmark "Failure to reach broad agreement in Copenhagen would be morally inexcusable, economically short-sighted and politically unwise. Now is the moment to act in common cause."
Dr R K Pachauri emphasised on the mitigation of emissions forcefully. He informed the audience that to limit average temperature increase at 2.0 degrees C, the cost of mitigation by 2030 would not exceed 3% of the global GDP.He enlightened them that mitigation carries many co-benefits like lower levels of air pollution and associated health benefits, higher energy security, larger employment, stable agricultural production and ensuring greater food security.
Addressing the heads of states, including USA, he advocated "if those in this gathering do not act in time, all of us would become leaders and citizens of failed states, because we would be failing in our sacred duty to protect this planet, which gives life to all species. Science leaves us with no space for inaction now."
Many hopes had been glued to the Copenhagen marathon to seal a deal on climate change when it failed to converge participants towards an accord. It was tasked to ensure binding commitments on GHGs emission and transfer of technology from rich industrialised countries to the poor countries. On both counts it failed and left several vague platitudes like creation of fund worth of $100 billion. UNSG Ban Ki-Moon had to intervene by saying "finally we sealed a deal.
The "Copenhagen Accord" may not be everything everyone had hoped for but this is an important beginning". Perhaps, he was oblivious of what had he dreamed some three months ago. Yvo de Boer, head of UN Climate Change Secretariat is still pinning hopes on the next round of climate change talks scheduled for November 2010 in Mexico.
Although Pakistan has yet to announce its national climate policy, but it was represented by the Foreign Minister saying "Pakistan depends on the Himalayan glaciers in the north for freshwaters. These glaciers are melting fast. Pakistan will soon be a water-stressed country.
In the south, the Indus delta is facing ecological disasters due to intrusion of seawater in fertile lands". In the Copenhagen conference Pakistan supported China, India and in South African version which will not be enough for matching national enthusiasm and aspirations.
Scientists warn that to avoid the ravages of climate change, the world needs to decrease its emissions by 30-40 percent (below 1990 levels) in the next decade till 2050. Much depends on the attitude of USA, Australia and, Canada to determine the fate of the Mexico round in 2010. According to Jonathan Freedland of the Guardian who quoted a latest survey conducted by the BBC that, just 45% of the Americans consider climate change as a "very serious issue".
A tripartite conglomerate reflects Leo Tolstoy "everyone thinks of changing of the world, but no one thinks of changing himself" Pakistan needs a national climate change policy based on long-term understanding of the national environment. Initially, empirical data is needed. Both China and India can be taken on board with the realisation that Pakistan's climatic scenario is decaying, flipped by neighbouring emissions of GHGs.
Bhutan is also victim of external emissions of GHGs.Its constitution guarantees 60% of its land mass to be reserved for forests. China and India are Asia's largest polluters. With the assistance of Chinese expertise and equipment, Pakistan can establish a think-tank on the pattern of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. Even its affiliation for sharing knowledge can be requested.
The experience of Pakistan with the International Union of Conservation of Nature (IUCN) has been remarkable for evolving and implementation of Pakistan Environment Programme and National Conservation Strategy. Pakistan can utilise valuable expertise of the UNEP by converting its prospective malls and mega-buildings on PV Panels, based on climate neutrality. UNEP is projecting its headquarters in Nairobi as a "green lung" to be emulated by others.
Usage of recycled papers is being done very successfully by the World Bank and UNEP. Till the expiry of Kyoto protocol in 2013, Pakistan should encash its Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Deregulation (REDD) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). In CDM Pakistan's share if compared with India ,Brazil, Thailand and Indonesia is negligible.
earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA) of Pakistan has taken some pragmatic strides by establishing a full-fledged directorate of environment. Its strategy of "build back better" has won plaudits for being environment friendly from the environmentalists.
(M Zafar Haider Jappa is development economist and based in Islamabad)